Adopted 2023-2050 RTP: Explore Forces and Policies

The future – it’s coming. And what will it bring with it? What will happen to where and how people live, work, and play? And how will these changes affect communities economically and physically?

The WFRC began the 2023-2050 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) process with a focus on exploring and understanding external forces (market shifts, transportation technologies, and policy approaches) that would impact our transportation, land use, and economic development decisions. The intent of this approach is to elevate the discussion of these planning uncertainties and understand these changes as a Region.

Following initial research and literature review, WFRC compiled a list of over 20 topic areas of external forces and policies that were presented to and discussed with peer groups. The peer groups were grouped by topic (active transportation, local communities, transit and on-demand travel, and roadways) and consisted of staff from local governments, agencies, and businesses whose work is directly tied to, or may be heavily influenced by, the identified forces. The purpose of the peer groups was to hold space for meaningful dialogue on the identified influences and policies, develop consensus on which external forces were important to address, approximate the range of impacts from these forces, and determine whether these influences and policies should be tested through simulated scenarios. Each peer group meeting included a discussion of each force as well as a poll asking each participant how impactful they believed each force would be in the future. WFRC used these discussions and polling results to inform and guide the 2023-2050 RTP planning process.

External Forces & Forward-Thinking Policies

External forces are transportation technologies and shifts in market and consumer demand that may impact transportation, land use, and economic development decisions. To prepare the Region and be more resilient to uncertain future changes, WFRC identified 11 initial external forces. These 11 external forces were refined to six key forces that WFRC considered for the 2023-2050 RTP with COVID-19 recovery was also considered as an overarching external force.

Connected and Autonomous Vehicles

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are vehicles that are capable of driving without human intervention (also called self-driving or driverless vehicles). A connected vehicle (CV) is one that communicates with other vehicles (V2V), infrastructure (V2I), and other road users (V2X) via wireless technology. By eliminating the high time costs of transportation and making travel more convenient, CAV has the potential to increase vehicle travel and increase the amount of time people are willing to commute. These factors could lead to more congestion on roadways.

High-Tech Transit Systems

High-tech transit systems utilize technology within their fleet. Often utilizing the Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) to become more efficient through Transit Signal Priority (TSP), Traffic Signal Coordination (TSC), and other technologies. These advances in transit technology improve the reliability of transit systems which can lower wait times and overall transit times. Additionally, high-tech transit systems can be integrated with AV technology to optimize transit and provide a greater degree of first/last-mile connections.

Micro-Mobility and E-Bikes

Micro-mobility refers to the use of lightweight devices that are typically used for shorter-distance transport. These can include electric assisted bicycles (e-bikes), electric scooters (e-scooters), and other mobility devices that have improved electric motor technology. The use of micro-mobility and e-bikes decreases parking demand in dense urban cores and may replace some vehicle trips. However, investments and maintenance of infrastructure and proper curb management are required for successful adoption.

On-Demand Travel and Sharing Services

The use of a mobile application that enables users to call/secure individual and shared transportation services. TNC services such as Uber and Lyft impact transportation choices and in some cases may decrease public transit ridership.

E-Commerce and Delivery

E-commerce and delivery refer to a series of changes that are occurring in the way people purchase goods and how those goods are delivered. These include, but are not limited to, internet shopping, food delivery, truck automation and platooning, and last-mile delivery logistics, including the use of drones. Connected and autonomous freight trucks provide opportunities to reduce fuel consumption and decrease delivery times while increased demand for warehousing space is placing products closer to their destinations.

Telecommuting

A work arrangement in which an employee works outside the office, often working from home or a remote location. Telecommuting reduces roadway congestion during peak travel times by eliminating the need for employees to commute into an office. However, this work arrangement may make living in more remote locations more desirable which in turn may increase weekly VMT.

To respond to the uncertainty created by the external forces identified in the RTP, WFRC identified 11 policies informed by research and literature reviews. Similar to the external forces, these policies were reviewed and discussed by the four peer groups and further refined. Each policy was further explored through technical support, additional studies, conversations, or included within the RTP document as a written portion. Each policy aims to address future uncertainty and better equip the Region to become more resilient to change. Below is a description of each policy including how it will be explored and its potential impact on the Region.

App Development

A tech service on smart phones that allows users to plot out, order, share, and pay for a wide variety of transit/transportation options. Use of transportation apps has the potential to reduce travel time, cost, and vehicle emissions. Transportation apps impact travel by providing options to people, letting them know the most efficient route. Not everyone has access to a smart phone with these application technologies which raises equity concerns. Include only in RTP document.

Congestion Pricing

Tolling to enter a cordoned area within a city. Does not include traditional toll lanes and roads. Congestion pricing has the potential to reduce peak-hour travel time by as much as 25% and can also increase transit ridership and reduce emissions. However, it also raises equity concerns which should be mitigated. Explore through conversations.

Curbside Management

The rise of transportation network companies, micro-mobility devices and stations, and personal delivery services are joining existing demand for space by pedestrians, drivers, bicycle infrastructure, transit service, etc. Better curb management has the potential to reduce illegal parking that increases congestion and delay, as well as the potential to increase transit reliability and accessibility. Curb management policies require a high degree of coordination between city departments, transit agencies, and private mobility companies, as well as adjacent land uses. Explore through conversations.

Local Street Design Modifications

Policies such as design and speed modifications, traffic calming measures, road diets, and right-sizing streets all aim to match land use context with traffic demand. These design modifications can improve the suitability and safety of roads for all modes of travel, especially as new technologies such as connected and autonomous vehicles and micro-mobility continue to evolve. Explore through additional study and explore through conversations.

Managed Lanes

Managed lanes are operational strategies that optimize the carrying capacity of existing transportation facilities. Some strategies include: high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes, toll roads, reversible lanes, and ramp metering. Managed lanes can increase mainline throughput, network productivity, and overall travel time reliability depending on which strategy is applied. Explore with technical support.

Parking Modernization

Modernization of parking systems, including elimination of parking minimums, adoption of paid parking, and unbundled parking costs.Parking modernization policies may lead to more efficient land use, reduced vehicle use, and less roadway congestion. However these benefits come at the expense of lost parking revenues and successful parking modernization programs will likely require significant technological investments. Explore with additional study and explore through conversations.

Road Usage Charge

A road usage charge is a usage-based fee based on a certain rate per mile traveled, replacing or supplementing taxes imposed on fuel consumption. Road usage charge programs more effectively match user impacts to the fees users pay when compared to fuel taxes. This could lead to a decrease in overall vehicle miles of travel. Explore with technical support.

Street Connectivity

Street connectivity policies aim to provide multiple routes and connections serving the same origins and destinations. These policies can take the form of block length requirements, connectivity indexes, or minimum intersection requirements. Improving street connectivity reduces VMT, travel delays, and average trip lengths and may also improve walkability. However adding more miles of street can be costly especially when trying to retrofit existing street networks. Explore with additional study.

Subsidized E-Bike Purchases

Subsidized or discounted purchase programs and trial use programs aimed at accelerating the adoption of electric assisted bicycles for transportation use. Reducing barriers to trialing and purchasing e-bikes can increase their adoption rates. E-bikes can offer a cheaper transportation alternative to the car, increase physical fitness levels, improve air quality, and decrease noise in cities. However, even with subsidies, e-bikes might still be cost-prohibitive to low SES individuals. Include in RTP document.

Transit Priority

Transit priority policies support creating transportation systems where transit is the priority and it is fast and frequent. Policies utilize lower tech improvements including queue jumping, dedicated lanes, bus only lanes, and intersection improvements. Transit priority should be assisted with high-tech transit systems including transit signal priority, autonomous shuttles, contactless payments, travel advisory systems, and other forms of emerging and transforming technologies. Prioritizing transit using both low and high tech improvements has the potential to decrease travel times, and improve the reliability and desirability of transit options. These benefits may increase transit ridership in the Region. Explore with technical support and explore with additional study.

Zero-Fare Transit

Zero-free transit is a policy decision to remove the barrier of paying for transit services. This may be done system-wide or within designated zones. A majority of fare-free transit systems found an increase in ridership which in turn eased traffic congestion, reduced air pollution, and in some cases, revitalized downtown areas. However, these benefits may come at the expense of crowded buses and loss of fare revenue. Explore with technical support and explore with additional study.

More information about each external force and forward-thinking policy can be found in the documents below.

External Forces and Policies: Peer Group Discussion Guidebook

External Forces and Policies: Scenario Framework Assumptions

External Forces Scenarios

High Automation Scenario

This scenario explores the impacts of robust adoption of connected and autonomous vehicles and high-tech transit systems. It assumes high levels of implementation of AV/CAV and high-tech transit, low levels of implementation of telecommuting and e-commerce, and medium levels of implementation of micro-mobility options.

High Shared-Mobility Scenario

This scenario imagines the impacts of high use of shared mobility options such as micromobility and on demand and ridesharing services. It assumes high levels of implementation of micro-mobility such as e-bikes, and medium levels of implementation of all other forces.

High E-Living Scenario

This scenario investigates the impacts of lifestyle shifts that favor telecommuting and e-commerce and delivery. It assumes high levels of implementation of telecommuting and e-commerce and low levels of implementation of all other forces.

Technical Analysis

With ranges of implementation determined, WFRC determined how to reflect the scenarios within the travel demand model. Often, the model did not have a specific functionality to reflect the differing impact of the external forces. For instance, there is no specific input for e-commerce and delivery. However, several “dials” within the model can be adjusted to reflect the totality of e-commerce and delivery effects. A memo is forthcoming documenting source material and explaining assumptions and “dials” adjusted to reflect the external forces impact on the travel demand model.